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2014 Fantasy Football Primer: QB position
With the arrival of training camps, it really starts to feel like the NFL season is right around the corner. And with that, comes Fantasy Football (FF), which has now exploded into a multi-million dollar industry, to the point that it’s a major focus on ESPN and every other major sports network and website.
So how can Couch Rider Report give you an edge? Well I’m no Matthew Berry, but since 2001, I have won five FF leagues on Yahoo! and placed in the top-three 11 times. So I have a pretty good handle on the whole FF thing, and the strategies that will lead you to FF glory.
Over the next few weeks, I’ll be giving a breakdown of each position and close with a article on drafting and season strategies that have benefited me in the past. And I’m starting with the glamour guys of the NFL, the QB.
Of course, much like the real NFL, in FF if you don’t have a good QB you really have no chance, since the QB position is the highest scoring in nearly all FF formats. And there are definitely “tiers”, if you will, that will help you decide if it’s worth going after a QB early or late.
A typical scoring system (this one is from Yahoo!) gives 4 points for a TD, 1 point for ever y 25 passing yards, -1 for INT’s, 10 points for every rushing yard and 6 points for rushing TD’s.
It goes without saying that if your league values passing TD’s AND rushing TD’s with the same point value, then a rushing QB won’t have the same advantage as they do in Yahoo!, where a guy like Robert Griffin III could throw for 20 TD and run for 10 TD (so just in TD’s, 140 points 20 X 4=80 and 10 X 6=60) vs. a Matthew Stafford who throws for 30 TD and runs for 0 (120 points).
20 points over the course of the season could mean the difference between making and missing the playoffs easily, as most FF leagues have 1-2 teams above the rest and 1-2 teams who only win a couple games. The rest are all jumbled in the middle, and total FF points is the first tiebreaker in most scenarios.
I’ll break the QB groups into tiers, with detailed explanations on my top 5 FF QB and a short blurb or two on the remaining 27-32 QB’s.
(NOTE: Projected Rounds are assuming a 10 team league. If you play in a 12 team league or more, you might want to bump a Round 4 guy to Round 3 for example, lest you get stuck with Matt Schaub/Chad Henne as your starting and backup QB’s!)
Tier 1: The Elite
#1: Peyton Manning, DEN: (5477 yards, 55 TD, 10 INT, 1 rushing TD)
Bye Week: 4
It goes without saying last year was a record setting year for Manning and the Denver Broncos. With weapons like Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Montee Ball and Julius Thomas, Manning has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. Not to mention, playing in a division with 2 of the lesser defenses in the NFL (San Diego and Oakland) for 4 games along with other teams on the Broncos schedule (Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots), the potential is there for another huge season.
Projection: 4800 yards, 45 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 1 rushing TD
Projected Round: 1, if not #1 overall in some drafts
#2: Drew Brees, NO: (5162 yards, 39 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 3 rushing TD)
Bye Week: 6
Talk about consistency: Drew Brees has been one of the top 6 scoring FF QB’s since 2009. Drafting Brees allows a owner to forget about the QB position until much later in the draft and focus on other areas (WR and RB primarily).
He did throw 22 INT’s in 2010 but that’s an outlier vs. the rest of the past 5 years. With riches at RB and WR, along with the best TE in fantasy in Jimmy Graham, you can expect Brees to have another successful campaign.
Projection: 4500 yards, 37 TD’s, 14 INT’s, 2 rushing TD
Projected Round: 1 or early in Round 2. Some Saints fans might take him #1 overall. I wouldn’t advise that!
#3: Aaron Rodgers, GB (2536 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT)
Bye Week: 9
With Rodgers suffering an injury in Week 9 last season, this obvious sent shockwaves through owners of this star QB across the fantasy landscape. While all appears well with Rodgers going into this season, it’s still worth mentioning having a back-up plan is important in FF.
Still, remove the injury and Rodgers has been either #1 or #2 in FF 3 of the 5 past seasons. And playing in a division with the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, two of the most atrocious defenses in the NFL, and a Chicago defense they always seem to own, that’s 6 games of high scoring right there. Finally, word came in today that Jordy Nelson agreed to a $40M contract with $14M guaranteed, so it’s a good thing when your top target is happy.
You could do much worse than drafting Rodgers, but don’t get carried away with the position you draft him in.
Projection: 4700 yards, 36 TD’s, 13 INT’s, 2 rushing TD
Projected Round: 2nd or 3rd at the very latest. 1st if someone is a big believer in him bouncing back.
Tier 2: Above average
#4: Andrew Luck, IND (3822 yards, 23 TD, 9 INT, 4 rushing TD)
Bye Week: 10
Now here is where things get interesting. Once you’re past the big 3, the next group of 6 QB’s were separated by only 20 FF points last season, depending on the scoring format.
So you’re doing a large bit of speculating as to who can break out of this group and get close to the P.Manning/Brees/Rodgers level. And my pick is Andrew Luck.
Given the injury to Vick Ballard, which will cause him to miss the season, the Colts are down to Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw at RB and that’s it. Which means the running game is likely to be sputtering, big time.
This means more opportunities for Luck to excel and with getting Reggie Wayne back in the fold, along with TE Cody Fleener and others, and a weak AFC South (the Titans, Jaguars and especially Texans basically scare no one), and this could be a breakout fantasy year for Luck.
Projection: 4500 yards, 32 TD, 11 INT, 3 rushing TD
Projected Round: 3rd or 4th, but would not be shocked to see him go with the last pick in Round 2
#5: Colin Kapernick, SF (3127 yards, 21 TD, 8 INT, 524 rushing yards, 4 rush TD)
Bye Week: 8
Again, with this group being only 20 points apart, a TD here or there extra or a few hundred yards is going to make a huge difference.
And yes, SF plays in a division with one elite defense (Seattle) and two up-and-coming ones (Arizona and St. Louis).
However, given that FF formats put value on the rushing aspect, and Kapernick gives you that, along with having a healthy Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, I just see big fantasy things for Kapernick in 2014. He’s at the top of my “rushing leaning QB” list.
Projection: 3300 yards, 27 TD’s, 10 INT’s, 700 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD
Projected Round: Anywhere from Round 2 to Round 4
#6: Tom Brady (NE): 4343 yards, 25 TD, 11 INT
Bye Week: 10
Without Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker, Tom Brady struggled to get on the same page with his offense. With the return of Gronkowski, and another year with his young WR’s, expect Brady to ascend again.
Projection: 4500 yards, 32 TD, 10 INT, 1 rushing TD
Projected Round: On name, probably 2-3, if owners accept last year as a trend, 3-4
#7: Phillip Rivers (SD): 4478 yards, 32 TD, 11 INT
Bye Week: 10
With Ryan Mathews being a constant disappointment, and Donald Brown not that much better, it’s often left to Rivers to deliver through the air, and given that outside of Kansas City, Denver and Oakland’s defenses aren’t scaring anyone (along with a schedule that includes the Bills, Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins, you can expect more of the same from Rivers in 2014.
Projection: 4600 yards, 33 TD, 13 INT, 1 rushing TD
Projected Round: Most likely in Round 4 or later, depending if there is a QB run in your respective draft.
#8: Andy Dalton (CIN): 4293 yards, 33 TD, 20 INT, 183 rushing yards, 2 TD
Bye Week: 4
This might seem a little low for Dalton, considering he finished in the top 5 of FF QB last season and AJ Green is a stud, but with the expected improvement of Cleveland’s overall play, Baltimore’s defense and of course the Steelers, along with a tough schedule and an early bye week (Week 4) and I expect him to take a small step backwards.
Projection: 4000 yards, 30 TD, 21 INT, 150 rushing yards, 1 TD.
Projected Round: 4th or later
#9: Matthew Stafford (DET): 4650 yards, 29 TD, 19 INT, 2 rushing TD
Bye Week: 9
Matthew Stafford is a tease. You think he’ll break out and be the next Drew Brees, and then he throws 19 INT’s, most of which were the “what were you thinking?” variety that cost Detroit games.
However, any QB who has Calvin Johnson to throw to (and given Detroit’s putrid running attack), isn’t a bad person to hitch your wagon to.
Projection: 4700 yards, 31 TD, 15 INT, 2 rushing TD’s
Projected Round: 4th or later
#10: Tony Romo (DAL): 3828 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT’s
Bye Week: 11
Even with being injured, Romo was the in the top 10 in most scoring formats. With Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and the fact the Dallas Cowboys‘ Defense figures to once again set historical records for futility, if you can deal with a few more INT’s and no rushing scores, Romo is an excellent choice. Just not if you want to win a Super Bowl…
Projection: 4800 yards, 35 TD, 17 INT
Projected Round: 4th or later
#11: Russell Wilson (SEA): 3357 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT, 539 rushing yards, 1 TD
Bye Week: Week 4
If you’re drafting the SB 48 winning QB, you’re doing this on the basis his rushing yards/TD numbers will increase, because otherwise, he lags behind many other QB in terms of passing numbers and TD’s.
That being said, there is a lot of potential in this offense to improve, but considerations have to be made for the division (NFC West), as 6 of the 16 games the Seattle Seahawks play will be against above average defensive units.
(Note that Marshawn Lynch is currently holding out with no end in sight…if that continues, this could boost Wilson’s fantasy value considerably).
Projection: 3750 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT, 700 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD
Projected Round: Some knucklehead will draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round based on his SB performance; don’t be that guy. 4th and beyond is more than adequate/fair.
Tier 3: The solid middle
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, all players from here on out will be drafted in Round 5 or later)
#12: Jay Cutler (CHI): (2621 passing yards, 19 TD, 12 INT)
Bye Week: 9
Here’s a guy who was limited by injuries last season, but in an offense with Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alston Jeffery, and a defensively inept NFC North, this could be a steal of a pick for you. As most guys are going to be in the middle, if you hit gold, combined with the guys you got waiting for a QB, you could be in position to win your league. Or you could be fighting to get out of the cellar. Either way…
Projection: 4000 yards, 30 TD, 14 INT, 1 rushing TD
Projected Round: If you were near the end of Round 4 and didn’t have a QB, I’d take him there. Otherwise, 5th or later absent a huge run on QB’s.
#13: Nick Foles (PHI): (2891 passing yards, 27 TD, 2 INT, 221 rushing yards, 3 TD)
Bye Week: 7
Let’s just get this out of the way: There is no way he will only throw 2 INT’s this season and arguably his #1 receiver, DeSean Jackson, is gone. However, playing in the NFC East , which is under a ton of transition (and rarely plays defense), this is a buy low, high upside in terms of potential. Or he could bust and now you have a crater at QB. A risk/reward play if there ever was one.
Projection: 3100 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT, 300 rushing yards, 2 TD
#14: Matt Ryan (ATL) (4515 yards, 26 TD, 17 INT)
Bye Week: 9
While you’re going to get pretty much zero in the rushing game from him, you can’t really knock his 2013 too much when they had no running game and no Julio Jones for most of the season. Another boom/bust pick.
Projection: 4300 yards, 30 TD, 15 INT
#15: Robert Griffin III (WSH) (3203 yards, 16 TD, 12 INT, 489 rushing yards)
Bye Week: 10
This projection is under the belief that a) he’ll play a full 16 games season and b) he’ll manage to get more then the ZERO rushing TD’s he had last season. Because otherwise, you have Brian Hoyer and not a dynamic FF scoring QB.
Projection: 3550 yards, 21 TD, 10 INT, 650 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD
#16: Ben Rothelisberger (PIT): 4261 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT
Bye Week: 12
Ben will win the Pittsburgh Steelers a lot of regular season games and has 2 Super Bowl rings. However, in only 1 season has he played all 16 games. He’s a good pinch-hit when your main QB has a bye week, but really shouldn’t be trusted as an every week start when his only weapons are now Antonio Brown and Heath Miller.
Projection: 4400 yards, 30 TD, 15 INT
#17: Cam Newton (CAR) (3379 passing yards, 24 TD, 13 INT, 585 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD)
Bye Week: 12
Seems like a long drop for a guy who was #3 in FF last year, but in losing Steve Smith, his most reliable WR, and give the injuries he is dealing with, he will be hard pressed to repeat his #3 finish in 2013. You’re drafting Newton hoping he repeated the rushing yards and TD totals from last season, because if he doesn’t , you’re in trouble
Projection: 3400 passing yards, 24 TD, 15 INT, 500 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD
Tier 4: FF Backups with potential to start
#18: Alex Smith (KC): 3313 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT, 431 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
Bye Week: 5
With Jamaal Charles getting a new deal, a huge sigh of relief had to come from Alex Smith, because the Kansas City Chiefs‘ running game opens up the passing lanes. Still, a lot of Smith’s numbers came from one of the softest schedules in the NFL last year. And it’s hard to believe he’ll throw only 7 INT’s again.
Projection: 3500 yards, 24 TD’s, 12 INT’s, 300 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
#19: Ryan Tannehill (MIA): 3913 yards, 24 TD, 17 INT, 238 rushing yards, 1 TD
Bye Week: 5
Given that the Miami Dolphins lack a reliable running game, much is put on Tannehill’s shoulders. Unfortunately, with Mike Wallace being a malcontent and the whole Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito mess hanging over the organization, this simply doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. Still, a reduction in the INT numbers and adding a couple TD’s puts Tannehill smack in the average realm.
Projection: 3500yards, 25 TD’s, 15 INT’s 200 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
#20: Carson Palmer (ARI): 4274 yards, 24 TD, 22 INT
Bye Week: 4
He’s got Larry Fitzgerald and pretty much nothing else, he’s is no threat to rush the football, let alone get a rushing TD, and 22 INT’s are a killer. Best case is he’s a spot starter when you have a bye week for your main QB.
Projection: 4000 yards, 25 TD, 18 INT
#21: Eli Manning (NYG): 3818 yards, 18 TD, 27 INT
Bye Week: 8
Now things are getting really tough. I simply cannot fathom a SB winning QB will tank an 2nd consecutive season in the fashion Eli did last year. The New York Giants did their best Steelers impression, only they lost the first SIX games of the year and the season was lost. Given the NFC East is about as muddled as it can get, I foresee a campaign more in line with his past numbers.
Projection: 3900 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT
#22: Joe Flacco (BAL): 3817 yards, 22 TD, 10 INT
Bye Week: 11
Flacco, after receiving the largest contract for a QB in NFL history, and coming off a SB win, delivered a very underwhelming 8-8 season, especially in light of having to throw the ball early and often with Ray Rice’s injury early in the season. He’s a solid albeit unspectacular QB both in real life and for fantasy purposes.
Projection: 3800 yards, 24 TD, 12 INT
Tier 5: The rest
#23: Sam Bradford (STL): 1687 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT
Bye Week: 4
He plays in a brutally tough defensive division, has underachieved practically his whole time with the St. Louis Rams and is injury prone (hurting his knee on October 20th against Carolina and missed the rest of 2013).
The time for him to show his potential is quickly running out. Expect a season more in line with his 2012 numbers.
Projection: 3700 yards, 23 TD, 14 INT, 100 rushing yards, 2 TD
#24: Geno Smith (NYJ): 3046 yards, 12 TD, 21 INT, 366 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD
Bye Week: 11
It was very much an up and down rookie campaign for Smith, but there is tremendous potential here, especially given his rushing yards and TD numbers. Spot starting him against some of the weaker defenses might not be a bad play, but if he’s your starter, you pretty much are in a deep league and out of options.
Projection: 3200 yards, 16 TD, 20 INT, 400 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD
#25: Ryan Fitzpatrick (HOU): 2454 yards, 14 TD, 12 INT, 225 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD
Bye Week: 10
With Andre Johnson none too happy about his contract and all the coaching staff changes, this has the potential to be a bad situation all the way around. However, you have to think the Houston Texans will be in shootouts all season, so there is slight potential for Fitzpatrick to have a huge fantasy season. Or the Texans will flame out to another 2-14 record and more people will get fired. Either way…
Projection: 3700 yards, 23 TD, 15 INT, 250 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
#26: Chad Henne (JAC): 3241 yards, 13 TD, 14 INT
Bye Week: 11
The Jacksonville Jaguars featured one of the very worst offenses in the NFL last year, bordering on downright unwatchable at times. And word today Cecil Shorts is going to be out two weeks with a hamstring injury. Yet Jacksonville seems to be headed in a good direction and Henne could come in and give you a boost on a bye week.
Projection: 3400 yards, 17 TD, 12 INT, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
#27: EJ Manuel (BUF): 1972 yards, 11 TD, 9 INT, 186 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD
Bye Week: 9
With Sammy Watkins coming into the fold to give EJ a big target in the passing game, there is definitely potential here with the rushing aspect that Manuel brings. However, he’s still very raw and already got injured in his first season. This isn’t someone you want to hitch your wagon to, but he at the same time merits attention this year, as a potential FF QB sleeper in 2015.
Projection: 3200 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT, 250 rushing yards, 3 rushing TD
#28: Matt Schaub (OAK): 2310 yards, 10 TD, 14 INT
Bye Week: 5
After never fulfilling his potential in Houston, Matt Schaub was sent to the Oakland Raiders for a bag of chips and a 99 cent fountain drink (I kid!).
He is the very definition of maddening, in that one game he can throw for 400 yards and the next game he can throw 4 INT’s.
That’s not someone you can hitch your fantasy QB hopes on and Oakland, while having moderate talent on offense, isn’t going to remind you of Denver’s.
Projection: 3000 yards, 18 TD, 22 INT, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
#29: Jake Locker (TEN): 1256 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT, 155 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s
Bye Week: 9
As if you haven’t figured out by now, anyone rated this low is either horribly inconsistent or just on a bad team or both.
Much the same with Schaub and others, Locker shows flashes of brilliance but can go several games in a row producing middling stats. And the Tennessee Titans don’t have the strongest group of skill players either.
If you REALLY must carry 3 QB’s (which I don’t recommend, unless you’re in a 2 starting QB format), then he might be worth a flier. Otherwise, he’s really not worth your time or roster spot.
Projection: 3300 yards, 20 TD, 18 INT, 250 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s
#30: Mike Glennon/Josh McCown (TB): 4400 yards, 32 TD, 10 INT
Bye Week: 7
If there’s one golden rule of thumb in FF, you never get involved in a QB by committee situation. It’s best to ensure whoever you draft is the #1 guy. The QB merry-go-round begins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
These two produced a great stat-line if they were 2 QB put into 1, unfortunately as the saying goes if you have two QBs you really have zero. Still, the potential exists for whoever breaks out of that to be a super-sleeper as a fantasy QB. Right now Josh McCown is listed as the starter on the depth chart; best to AVOID this all together if possible until a starter is named for certain.
Projection (for either, though Glennon IMO has the bigger upside): 3600 yards, 26 TD, 16 INT
#31: Brian Hoyer/Johnny Manziel (CLE): 615 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT (Hoyer’s stats)
Bye Week: 4
There simply isn’t anything to see or love here, honestly. With Josh Gordon facing a 1 year suspension, and the Cleveland Browns inexplicably passing on Sammy Watkins (to the Bills delight), there aren’t any skill players here who are going to put the fear in opposing defenses, to be frank.
Hoyer did show flashes he can play, but with this long suffering fan base seeing Manziel as their Tebow-esque savior, I do not see how Hoyer can not only hold him off but perform with the pressure knowing one 3 INT game will put him riding the pine.
Projection (combined): 3100 yards, 20 TD, 20 INT, 350 rushing yards, 4 TD (both rushing totals mostly with Manziel at QB).
#32: Matt Cassel/Teddy Bridgewater/Christian Ponder (MIN): 3400 yards, 18 TD, 18 INT, 6 rushing TD
Bye Week: 10
The only thing worse than a two-ring QB circus is one that has THREE possibilities. Good luck figuring out how this one is going to pan out. Your money would probably be on Bridgewater (they don’t draft guys to be on the bench), but Cassel likely starts the season. Whatever you do, AVOID.
Projections (combined): 3400 yards, 20 TD, 22 INT, 4 rushing TD (if Bridgewater sees action, otherwise, downgrade the rushing TD numbers)
Joe Cummings is a Writer for Couch Rider Report. Follow us on Facebook or twitter.
