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David Harris’ 2015 NFL Fantasy Outlook

by David Harris August 11, 2015

With the preseason officially here the obvious scent of fantasy football is in the air. Everyone is mentioning who their “sleepers” of the year are, who will be a bust, and who will perform just as they are expected.

In this day and age the “sleeper” no longer exists. Fantasy has grown into one of the biggest and fastest growing past times in the world. With radio stations dedicated strictly to it, yearly leagues turning into weekly and even daily leagues, and billions of dollars being funneled into the world of fantasy football, there are just too many “experts” and too much media coverage to really have a “sleeper” exist.

The majority of fantasy owners already know about that undrafted rookie wide receiver that is dominating in camp. That veteran who has always been a top fantasy option but has never had a QB until now and is expected to have his greatest statistical season even though he’s getting up there in age…(cough cough….Andre Johnson).

With that being said, I am here to help you decide on a few players that you should buy into their hype, and a few you shouldn’t. Below are some predictions on this fantasy season!

Happy hunting fantasy owners!

1) Jimmy Graham: will not eclipse 75+ receptions 865 +yards and 7+ touchdowns-

Jimmy Graham is a freakish athlete. The height, speed, and size to make any defensive coordinator cringe, on paper the trade to Seattle should be the exact thing that puts the Seahawks in a juggernaut stage.

The only problem is he does not match the play style of the Seattle Seahawks. With arguably the best running-game in football, the Seahawks have built their “legion of boom” with old school football in mind. Drew Brees is by far a better passer than Russell Wilson; however last year Graham still struggled to put up consistent point totals for fantasy owners.

Here’s the major problem(s) at hand for Graham this year:

1) If he couldn’t put up consistent numbers with a team that ranked 32nd in rushing attempts, how is he going to put those numbers up with a team that is the best in the NFL at running the ball? Oh and have I mentioned HE IS DOWNGRADING AT THE QB POSITION?!?

2) I am a firm believer in contract years and how it relates to performance. Wilson has never been, and will probably never be, an air raid QB. He has never performed as one, even when he was fighting for a new contract. Now that such a huge commitment has been made to Wilson, not only can he take the back seat on trying to beef up his stats to make extra money but the Seahawks are more than likely going to protect their investment by running the ball.

Additionally, with the low life expectancy of running backs in this day and age, they don’t have many quality years left with Marshawn Lynch doing the things he’s doing.

3) Graham is not only a horrible blocker, but he has no desire to be a blocker. If you watch tape of him last year with New Orleans, opposing corners and safety’s lacking in both height and weight over power him at the line of scrimmage. The worst part about it all is his body language and faking injuries.

On numerous occasions he would get over powered by a smaller corner and go to grab his shoulder long after his failed blocking attempt as if to say it wasn’t his lack of skill or drive to make the key block, rather his shoulder that prohibited him from making the block. With such a horrible blocker on the field at a position as detrimental to Seattle’s success as the TE position, Seattle will be forced to bring in a second TE strictly for run blocking purposes.

This means a more skilled offensive weapon like a wide receiver will be taken off the field and replaced with a subpar offensive weapon whose job is strictly to block. This means safeties will no longer need to worry that their double coverage of Graham could mean a completion over the top. This means on nearly every play the defense can focus on Graham in coverage. Most of Graham’s success was a result of the high-powered offensive abilities of the New Orleans Saints and the speed and skill at wide receiver surrounding Graham.

With this all being said, a worse QB and passing offense surrounding him, a team identity that does not help Graham succeed, and the fact that he doesn’t have the ability, nor the drive to block, I have Graham having an underwhelming season. While still a top TE in the league, the majority of his points will come from red zone targets.

*Projected stats: 73-receptions 810-yards 7-touchdowns (lowest stats since his rookie year)

2) Andre Johnson will have 10+ touchdowns:

Andre Johnson has always been one of the most underrated pro players in the game. Never having a quality quarterback to throw him the ball, an underwhelming underachieving offense surrounding him, and until last year no real number two receiving option around him, he still managed to be a top receiver at the pro level. A fantasy owners delight, his undervalued name always meant you could steal him in your draft.

The only constant problems with Andre Johnson is his past were his health and his teammates. Averaging over 80 receptions a season during his long pro career, Andre Johnson has been the definition of consistent. Last year was his worst statistical season in his career; however, he still racked up an astonishing 85 receptions for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns. His career high in touchdowns is 9. This year he will surpass that and below are reasons why.

1) Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck:

Take away the fact that Andrew Luck is the leagues best young QB, he is in the elite 5 top quarterbacks in the league. Many believe he may be the second best quarterback only behind Aaron Rodgers (for now). He led the league with 40 touchdown passes last year and did it with a much worse offense.

If he can give an older, and injured (rehabilitated knee, torn triceps) Reggie Wayne 64-receptions 779-yards and 3-touchdowns, imagine what Luck could give a healthy and locked in Andre Johnson. With only a few days of training camp in the books, Luck has already targeted Johnson more than double the amount any other receiver has gotten. Luck is going to love the big bulky Andre Johnson. Johnson is a nice change-up to his speedy smaller receiving corps consisting of TY Hilton and rookie Phillip Dorsett.

2) Andre Johnson has a new found drive and focus never seen before:

A Super Bowl ring or bust. That’s how Andre Johnson feels about the Colts this season and the remainder of his career. He left the team that drafted him, the face of a franchise, to go to his division rival to win now. Nothing more, nothing less than the dance is the expectation. Towards the end of his career with the Texans, many believed he had lost his drive for the game, approaching Sunday’s without any focus or care, as he knew he would be at open watching the playoffs from his sofa. He now not only can taste a divisional championship, but the playoffs as well. He still has some gas left in the tank and he’s using it with a team he wants to play for.

3) Johnson has legitimate weapons around him:

He no longer is the only guy on the field that can play! With multiple weapons that could break out for over 1000 yards and a productive running back this will mean Johnson could flourish. With the pure speed of this team doubling team Johnson just won’t be possible, so expect a lot of targets/receptions.

*prediction: 94 receptions 1135 yards 12 touchdowns

3) Odell Beckham Jr will not be a top 5 fantasy WR:

This one is pretty simple, no need for an over abundance of statistics and analytics to prove this one. He just flat out doesn’t pass the eye test. Call me crazy, discard and discredit everything you have read to this point, I don’t care. ODB Jr just isn’t a top 5 receiver. Sure he has amazing hands that help him fill up his game film with high light catches. Sure he has lateral quickness and can jump his way into outer space. Sure he is a top 10 receiver in terms of skill and athleticism. He has a few glaring problems though that I can’t seem to overlook.

1) I don’t believe he will remain healthy. A hamstring injury caused him to miss the preseason and first 4 games of his rookie season. To have the statistics that he had with missing 4 games is insane! I just personally foresee injuries having the same effect on ODB Jr as injuries did to Victor Cruz in recent years.

2) His ego is growing so fast there isn’t a helmet big enough to safely protect his head. After arguably one of the greatest catches in NFL history the legend of Odell Beckham Jr grew. With arguably the greatest NFL season a rookie wide out has had, his legend continues to grow to this day. Madden has ranked him ahead of great receivers like Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Listening to interviews with ODB, you can see his ego is growing way to fast. This could cause issues on and off the field with teammates.

3) HE IS ONLY IN HIS SECOND SEASON!!! Hold off on handing him the “best receiver” in the league card until we see what a second season in the NFL looks like. At one point after his rookie year, many were willing to give RG3 the nod over Andrew Luck as best young QB, and some even went as far as to say he was one of the best QBs in the league. Year two stifled that. Give professional players and coaches one offseason of focusing on how to stop ODB and we will see what his stats look like. I don’t believe ODB will have an average season by any stretch of the imagination (he will still have a top 10-15 fantasy receiver season if he remains healthy). I don’t see him having a top 2-5 fantasy season like many experts believe. Eli Manning is much better than people are giving him credit for right now and with a healthy Victor Cruz back on the field, ODB will still have plenty of targets. Just don’t be disappointed when he doesn’t have a top-5 season.

*projected stats: 92-receptions 1148-yards 7-touchdowns

4) Terrell Pryor, WR for the Cleveland Browns, is worth a draft pick.

Pryor recently changed positions from QB to WR. This is hard enough to do in high school, let alone college, LET ALONE THE NFL! When playing for the Oakland Raiders, Pryor was an electric read option QB, once even rushing for a 93-yard touchdown run (longest by an QB in NFL history). Below are reasons why I believe Pryor may be worth using a draft pick on:

1) Size and speed! 4.38 40 time, 93-yard touchdown run which again is the longest by a QB in history. His 6’5 240 lbs frame. Not only would he be one of the largest receivers in the NFL but also one of the fastest.

2) This former Oakland Raider knows how a QB sees and thinks. He played QB in the NFL and was honestly not too bad at it. He had won big games in college and has even played very well in the NFL. Take a look at his start against the San Diego Chargers when he had a QB rating over 135 and out performed Phillip Rivers. That being said, he knows what a QB wants and needs to see to throw the ball. Also the ability to come in and play QB if any injuries occur and have the potential to pull an Antwaan Randle El in Super Bowl XL and throw a deep ball on a reverse-option-pass. Take into account that he is only 26, his ceiling is very high and nowhere near to being touched.

Expect Pryor to, at minimum, be a viable plug-in-play receiver for your team on bye weeks, let alone the ability to potentially be an every week player.

*projected stats: 62-receptions, 784-yards, 4-touchdowns/ 14- rushes, 94-yards 1-touchdown/ 5-completions, 56-yards, 1-touchdown/ add potential special team plays such as returns to statistics as well.

The final part of this article is what I am really looking forward to doing this upcoming season in my articles. It’s what I call “the fans speed round”. Quick summary of what it is, fans have asked me questions, I have selected a few of these “buy or sell” questions and will simply answer with a “buy or sell” remark. No need for stats and or analytics to help reassure my fan base (or my hated critics lol) that I am correct or wrong. Just a simple fast answer to simple fast questions. This week will feature the AFC SOUTH.

1) Colby Fleener will be a top-8 fantasy TE- BUY IT

2) Phillip Dorsett will be a top-5 rookie fantasy WR- BUY IT

3) Andrew Luck will break NFL records that include: passing yardage and touchdown passes- BUY IT

4) 3+ Colts receivers and or TEs will have over 900-yards receiving and over 9-touchdowns- BUY IT

5) Frank Gore will rush for 1200-yards- SELL IT

6) Marcus Mariota will be a top-10 fantasy QB- SELL IT

7) Julius Thomas will continue his streak as one of the top fantasy TEs in football- SELL IT

8) When healthy, Arian Foster will produce as a top-5 fantasy RB- BUY AND SELL IT

9) Blake Bortles will throw for 3200+ yards and 28+ touchdowns- SELL IT

10) Houston’s defense will still be one of the top defenses to draft- BUY IT

David Harris is a sports writer for CouchRiderReport.net

August 11, 2015 0 comment

FANTASY PLAYERS: BUY OR SELL

by David Harris October 29, 2014

written by David Harris

OTA Photos Flickr

With Week 9 of the NFL season about to start, many fantasy teams are running out of time to make a splash in their fantasy leagues with playoffs right around the corner. Most leagues are also coming up on their trade deadlines, and now is the time where injuries, suspensions, and poor performing players could be desperately hurting your team (especially you Adrian Peterson owners). With the majority of surprise free agency/waiver wire players already picked up and paying dividends on other teams, trades are one of the most key parts to a fantasy league this deep in the season. Whether its a small trade involving a 3rd option wide receiver for a backup to an injury prone running back or a blockbuster deal involving Dallas Cowboy’s RB DeMarco Murray for Indianapolis Colts’ QB Andrew Luck a trade no matter the size or “wow value” could be all the difference between winning the championship in your league or missing the playoffs all together (and being the butt of all the jokes for years to come). Below I will be giving you my opinions on a player whose stock is as high as it can get and on the DFSE (David Fantasy Football Stock Exchange, similar to NYSE- New York Stock Exchange) and is rated as a SELL, another player whose stock is lower than what it should be and on the DFSE is rated as a BUY, and than a surprise adjustment, a player who I believe could win the NFL’s “Rookie of the Year” award honors, and who any team should be happy to either keep or trade for him in the league your in.
Steve Smith Sr. (WR) Baltimore– Steve Smith Sr has had a stellar season. He has shown the league that no matter how old he is, how small he is, or whether or not the franchise who drafted him stopped believing in him or not, he could still play at an elite level. Through the first 4-weeks of the season, Smith was targeted 42 times for a total of 25 catches, 429 yards and 3 touchdowns. His biggest performance was against his ex team, the Carolina Panthers where he caught 7-passes for 139-yards and 2-touchdowns. Since that game his production has dropped, only catching 1-touchdown and having only 1-game where he had over 100 receiving yards. The first 4-weeks were pure fantasy gold, the last 4-weeks have been a consistent model, and if you aren’t in a Points Per Reception (PPR) league, a consistent model of disappointment and depression. His targets have remained consistent, however, targets don’t matter to a fantasy team unless they result in catches, yardage, and touchdowns. Steve Smith is owned by 94% of fantasy football leagues, and is a top ranking WR in most as well. I believe with the Steelers, Titans, a bye week, Saints, Dolphins, Jaguars, Houston, and finally Cleveland, he should only be expected to perform big on 2-4 of those games. Houston, Cleveland, and the Dolphins all have solid defenses, and you can’t sleep on the Steelers and Saints who both are playing at home. I’m not saying Smith will be a bad option, but he will come back to reality, with the cold wet weather of the east coast rolling in in the next few games, his old age coming into effect, and the lack of a run game by Baltimore, now is the time to trade Steve Smith Sr if you got him.
DFSE’s Rating: Sell

Ronnie Hillman (RB) Denver– Ronnie Hillman has always been a valuable asset to the Denver Bronco’s run game. Last season, Denver coach John Fox tried utilizing Hillman (who had the most explosiveness of anyone in Denver’s backfield) but fumbling issues and lack of pass protection skills pushed him down the depth chart behind both K. Moreno (now in Miami) and Montee Ball who is now currently injured. This season, Montee Ball was named the starter and struggled against many teams, never rushing for more than 67 yards which was against the Indianapolis Colts in week 1. In college, Ball ran for the NCAA record in rushing touchdowns, yet this year only found the end zone once (again in week one against the Colts) before getting injured. Since Ball has been out (injured week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals) Hillman has taken advantage of his carries, rushing for over 100 yards 2x, and rushing for no less than 64 yards which happened to be against the Arizona Cardinals in which he, not only didn’t start the game, but also happened to be running against one of the most stout rushing defenses in the NFL. Another interesting fact to look at is that he has put up very good rushing stats against many of the leagues top rushing defenses including the Jets, Cardinals, and 49ers. With Ball coming back in the next few weeks, Hillman has shown John Fox and Co. what he is capable of. Peyton Manning seems to be a real believer in Hillman, and if Manning believes in someone and wants them on the field that should result in him keeping the starting position and having Ball become his back up. Hillman will be a solid RB2-3 or Flex option to have, especially when playing in cold wet climates late in the year begin to diminish the ability to pass the ball. Some of the fridgid snowy places he will be playing in include Denver, New England, Kansas City, and Cincinnati.
DFSE’s Rating: BUY (HOLD)

Kelvin Benjamin (WR) Carolina- I have been high on Benjamin since prior to the draft, calling him the next Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. With height, size, strength, solid speed for a possession receiver, and some of the best hands in the NFL, like Megatron, this guy can go up there and snag a ball as long as its somewhere in his radius. With the lack of offensive weapons that Cam Newton has at his disposal, Benjamin has been reaping all the benefits being targeted between 8-11x per game (never less than 6x in a game) and hauling in 571 yards and 5 touchdowns thus far in his rookie year. With weak defenses including the Saints, Tampa, Minn, and Atlanta all coming up he should be poised to continue his breakout year and even improve on his already impressive stats. The only tough part of his schedule the rest of the way is playing Cleveland, but being that he is the only real weapon Newton has, should still have around 6-8 targets, 5-7 catches 60-90 yards and a touchdown. If you do not have this guy on your roster, trade for him. If you have him on your roster, close the door on any trade involving him, close your eyes and envision your fantasy football championship ring and how good it is going to feel on your hand at the end of the year.

DFSE’s Rating: Extreme Buy (HOLD)
There are many other players that are listed as top SELL’s and BUY’s on the DFSE, for more information on these players feel free to comment below on this article, you may also ask about certain players and I will give you their listed rating, or email me at [email protected]. Thank you so much for reading.

David Harris is a sports writer for CouchRiderReport.net.

October 29, 2014 0 comment

NBA

Pacers Cavs Discussing Roy Hibbert Trade

by David Harris October 1, 2014

written by David Harris

Willie Stark-Flickr

If Cleveland Cavalier fans thought the contract extension of Kyrie Irving, the free agent signing of LeBron James, and the trade for Kevin Love wasn’t enough to get excited about this surly will. Reports have come out stating that the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers are discussing a deal which centers around Dion Waiters and a future first round draft pick for the inconsistent All-Star Center Roy Hibbert.

Tyler Spence was the first person to not only report the trade talks between these two teams, but was the first person to announce the Cavalier’s interest in Roy Hibbert. This trade could put the nail in the coffin for other title contender’s fear of the Cavs. Not only do they have three top All-Stars (James, Love, Irving) but also have great young contributors in Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson. They also have top veteran players in Anderson Varajo, Mike Miller, Shawn Marion, James Jones, and rumors of Ray Allen coming to Cleveland as well. Obviously Waiters would disappear from this roster if the trade ends up happening, but with Hibbert, the Cavs would now have four All-Stars with 3 of them under the age of 27.

The biggest potential weakness for this Cavs team (potentially the only weakness) is low post defense. Kevin Love is underrated when it comes to his defensive abilities, even disrespected by the media and fans who constantly seem to knock his defensive play, constantly saying he is a liability on the defensive end. Roy Hibbert would instantly boost the Cavs low post defense as he average 2.2 blocks per game last season with Indiana. Until the playoffs, many NBA analysts believed that Roy Hibbert had taken that next step and was beginning to fill the role as not only an All-Star but potentially the NBA’s top center. His lack of constancy towards the end of the year and the playoffs have allowed teams like the Cavaliers to come in and potentially trade for the 27 year old big man. Losing Waiters in the trade may hurt, but not only could Roy Hibbert help fix the one knock of this Cavs team, but if he can hit his average of 10.8 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game, this Cavs team will not only be the best offensive squad in the NBA, potentially the best defensive squad in the NBA, but will certainly be the best rebounding squad in the NBA (centered around Love’s 12,5 RPG, LeBron’s 6.9 RPG, Thompson’s 9.2 RPG, and Varajo’s 9.7 RPG).

Another key is the health of Anderson Varajo. Varajo is an injury prone player and if the Cavaliers can add Roy Hibbert, rookie head coach David Blatt can give the 32 year old Varajo less minutes which, in a perfect world, will help him stay fresh and healthy throughout this season, a rarity for Varajo.

This trade also allows the Cavaliers to cut ties with the out spoken Dion Waiters. Waiters has shown a lot of potential, often being compared to a poor mans Dwayne Wade, but rumors have surfaced about the tension that resides between Irving and Waiters and who the leader is between the two. Waiters also came out this off-season stating that he did not want to come off the bench for the Cavaliers, and that he deserved to be a starter. Waiters does not seem like the kind of guy who is comfortable being the fourth or fifth scoring option for his team. His actions have shown that he desperately wants to be the number one guy, and sadly for Waiters, this Cavs team is just to deep for that to happen. Many people even believe that Minnesota’s newly acquired rookie Andrew Wiggins was shipped out of Cleveland because of Waiter’s comments about not wanting to come off the bench for the Cavs. Shipping Waiters out of Cleveland could be beneficial for the locker room, but there are some problems with getting rid of him.

1) LeBron James has made it very clear that he wants to play with Dion Waiters. He has worked with him throughout the off-season and has come out and said that he is excited to help improve Waiter’s on-court performance and on/off-court leadership skills. LeBron James was also rumored to have told the Cavs to not include Waiters in the Kevin Love trade. As this off-season has shown, James is truly the one in control in Cleveland. What he wants he gets and if he wants Waiters on this roster than expect Waiters to remain a Cavalier.

2) Waiters is under contract longer than Hibbert and for half the cost. Hibbert is owed $30 million over the next two seasons. Waiters is owed $15 million over the next three seasons (half the cost of Hibbert with one more season under contract).

3) The Cavs are not very deep at the SG and PG positions. Waiters can come in and play PG which is key because Kyrie Irving is also extremely injury prone, never playing a full season in his three year NBA career. The backups to Waiters and Irving include Mike Miller, Matthew Deledova, and rookie Joe Harris. This is not deep and getting rid of Waiters for Hibbert could hurt this team’s depth.

All in all it seems that there are a lot of positives and negatives to this trade. This trade could help make the Cavs a top defensive team to add to their top offensive expectations, as well as help keep Varajo healthy. If the Cavs get Hibbert, it could also insure that James and Love play their true positions (James at SF and Love at PF). David Blatt has mentioned a few roster scenarios where James would be playing PF and Love center. As this trade is just in the beginning stages, nothing is for certain and we are a long time away from any trade being finalized. One thing is for certain though, the Cleveland Cavaliers are doing everything in their power to help LeBron James win not just one, not just two, not just three titles, but maybe even those six or seven he talked about in Miami.

David Harris is a Writer for Couch Rider Report. Follow us on Facebook or twitter.

October 1, 2014 0 comment