Rookie WR historical Fantasy Impact
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Every year we’re told that we should stay away from rookie Wide Receivers. There are always big names we want on our squad; guys that we watched dominate in college. Players who draft analysts compare to our favorite all time players. Months of NFL Draft hype could make a speedster from Clemson look like the second coming of Calvin Johnson. To bust this theory we must look at the past and see how the former top prospects of the past 5 years fared in their inaugural seasons.
2013:
Rd 1, Pick 8) Tavon Austin, St Louis Rams
- 2013 Games with zero Fantasy pts: 3/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 2
- Best Game: 34 pts vs IND
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 132 points
Rd 1, Pick 21) DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
- 2013 Games w/ zero Fantasy pts: 0/ 1-9 pts: 10/ 10-19 pts: 5/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 24 pts vs Ten
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 158 points
Rd 1, Pick 29) Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 0/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 6/ 20+pts: 2
- Best Game: 25 pts vs Bal
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 162 points
Rd 2, Pick 2) Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 8/ 1-9 pts: 5/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 2
- Best Game: 23 pts vs Oak
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 77 Points
Rd 2, Pick 9) Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 2/ 1-9 pts: 9/10-19 pts: 5/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 19 pts vs BAL
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 118 Points
Rd 2, Pick 27) Aaron Dobson, New England Patriots
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 5/ 1-9 pts: 6/ 10-19 pts: 4/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 30 pts vs PIT
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 112 Points
Rd 3, Pick 10) Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 1/ 1-9 pts: 9/ 10-19 pts: 5/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 25 pts vs DEN
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 148 points
Rd 3, Pick 12) Kennan Allen, San Diego Chargers
- 2013 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 2/ 1-9 pts: 4/ 10-19 pts: 5/ 20+pts: 5
- Best Game: 26 VS WAS
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 223 Points
2012:
Rd 1, Pick 5) Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 1/ 1-9 pts: 11/ 10-19 pts: 3/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 29 pts vs HOU
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 118 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 76 Points
Rd 1, Pick 13) Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 2/ 1-9 pts: 13/ 10-19 pts: 0/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 22 pts vs SF
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 68 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 214 Points
Rd 1, Pick 20) Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 1/ 1-9 pts: 13/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 11 pts vs IND
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 87 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 213 Points
Rd 2, Pick 1) Brian Quick, St Louis Rams
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 10/ 1-9 pts: 6/ 10-19 pts: 0/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 9 pts vs SF
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 27 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 60 Points
Rd 2, Pick 11) Stephen Hill, New York Jets
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 10/ 1-9 pts: 5/ 10-19 pts: 0/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 21 pts vs BUF
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 43 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 64 Points
Rd 2, Pick 13) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 7/ 1-9 pts: 7/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 14 pts vs IND
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 54 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 283 Points
Rd 2, Pick 22) Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 9/ 1-9 pts: 5/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 12 pts vs HOU
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 43 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 16 Points
Rd 2, Pick 31) Reuben Randle, New York Giants
- 2012 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 8/ 1-9 pts: 7/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 18 pts vs Philly
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 48 Points
- 2013 Fantasy Points: 138 Points
2011:
Rd 1, Pick 4) AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 2/ 1-9 pts: 5/ 10-19 pts: 9/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 18 pts vs DEN
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 153 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 204 Points
Rd 1, Pick 6) Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 4/ 1-9 pts: 5/ 10-19 pts: 4/ 20+pts: 3
- Best Game: 28 pts vs IND
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 150 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 182 Points
Rd 1, Pick 26) Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 5/ 1-9 pts: 10/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 14 pts vs SD
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 31 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 38 Points
Rd 2, Pick 12) Titus Young, Detroit Lions
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 2/ 1-9 pts: 11/ 10-19 pts: 3/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 12 pts vs DEN
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 98 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 63 Points
Rd 2, Pick 26) Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 3/1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 3/ 20+pts: 2
- Best Game: 34 pts vs STL
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 130 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 134 Points
Rd 2, Pick 27) Greg Little, Cleveland Browns
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 1/ 1-9 pts: 13/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 19 pts vs ARI
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 90 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 84 Points
Rd 2, Pick 32) Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
- 2011 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 3/ 1-9 pts: 12/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 15 pts vs NO
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 56 Points
- 2012 Fantasy Points: 162 Points
2010:
Rd 1, Pick 22) Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
- 2010 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 7/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 29 pts vs HOU
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 40 Points
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 79 Points
Rd 1, Pick 24) Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
- 2010 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 4/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 3/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 23 pts vs NYG
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 106 Points
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 147 Points
Rd 2, Pick 7) Arrelious Benn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2010 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 5/ 1-9 pts: 10/ 10-19 pts: 1/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 29 pts vs HOU
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 55 Points
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 61 Points
Rd 2, Pick 28) Golden Tate, Seattle Seahawks
- 2010 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 8/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 0/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 5 points vs DEN
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 23 Points
- 2011 Fantasy Points: 57 Points
2009:
Rd 1, Pick 7) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 9/ 1-9 pts: 7/ 10-19 pts: 0/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 8 pts vs DAL
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 20 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 47 Points
Rd 1, Pick 10) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 5/ 1-9 pts: 9/ 10-19 pts: 2/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 13 pts vs GB
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 74 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 110 Points
Rd 1, Pick 19) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 3/ 1-9 pts: 9/ 10-19 pts: 3/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 26 points vs TB
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 99 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 160 Points
Rd 1, Pick 22) Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 1/ 1-9 pts: 7/ 10-19 pts: 7/ 20+pts: 1
- Best Game: 20 pts vs CHI
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 140 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 139 Points
Rd 1, Pick 29) Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 3/ 1-9 pts: 8/ 10-19 pts: 5/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 18 pts vs NO
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 115 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 171 Points
Rd 1, Pick 30) Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
- 2009 Games w/ 0 Fantasy pts: 3/ 1-9 pts: 9/ 10-19 pts: 4/ 20+pts: 0
- Best Game: 19 pts vs ARI
- 2009 Fantasy Points: 88 Points
- 2010 Fantasy Points: 131 Points
Conclusion: In the past 5 years, Keenan Allen had the most points of any rookie WR with 223. Other good first year performers include TY Hilton, Mike Williams, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Torrey Smith, Terrence Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Tavon Austin. If you reevaluate the point breakdowns, you will see that the players named had many single-digit games but also had a few double digit games. Bottom line, rookie WR’s are the definition of Boom or Bust. 30 points one week could mean 3 points the following 4 weeks.
Just in case you were wondering, the 3 best rookie receiving performances in the past 20 years are: Randy Moss: 301 pts/ Anquan Boldin: 286 points/ Terry Glenn: 284 yards
P.J. Conley is a Writer for Couch Rider Report. Follow us on Facebook or twitter.