With the preseason officially here the obvious scent of fantasy football is in the air. Everyone is mentioning who their “sleepers” of the year are, who will be a bust, and who will perform just as they are expected.
In this day and age the “sleeper” no longer exists. Fantasy has grown into one of the biggest and fastest growing past times in the world. With radio stations dedicated strictly to it, yearly leagues turning into weekly and even daily leagues, and billions of dollars being funneled into the world of fantasy football, there are just too many “experts” and too much media coverage to really have a “sleeper” exist.
The majority of fantasy owners already know about that undrafted rookie wide receiver that is dominating in camp. That veteran who has always been a top fantasy option but has never had a QB until now and is expected to have his greatest statistical season even though he’s getting up there in age…(cough cough….Andre Johnson).
With that being said, I am here to help you decide on a few players that you should buy into their hype, and a few you shouldn’t. Below are some predictions on this fantasy season!
Happy hunting fantasy owners!
1) Jimmy Graham: will not eclipse 75+ receptions 865 +yards and 7+ touchdowns-
Jimmy Graham is a freakish athlete. The height, speed, and size to make any defensive coordinator cringe, on paper the trade to Seattle should be the exact thing that puts the Seahawks in a juggernaut stage.
The only problem is he does not match the play style of the Seattle Seahawks. With arguably the best running-game in football, the Seahawks have built their “legion of boom” with old school football in mind. Drew Brees is by far a better passer than Russell Wilson; however last year Graham still struggled to put up consistent point totals for fantasy owners.
Here’s the major problem(s) at hand for Graham this year:
1) If he couldn’t put up consistent numbers with a team that ranked 32nd in rushing attempts, how is he going to put those numbers up with a team that is the best in the NFL at running the ball? Oh and have I mentioned HE IS DOWNGRADING AT THE QB POSITION?!?
2) I am a firm believer in contract years and how it relates to performance. Wilson has never been, and will probably never be, an air raid QB. He has never performed as one, even when he was fighting for a new contract. Now that such a huge commitment has been made to Wilson, not only can he take the back seat on trying to beef up his stats to make extra money but the Seahawks are more than likely going to protect their investment by running the ball.
Additionally, with the low life expectancy of running backs in this day and age, they don’t have many quality years left with Marshawn Lynch doing the things he’s doing.
3) Graham is not only a horrible blocker, but he has no desire to be a blocker. If you watch tape of him last year with New Orleans, opposing corners and safety’s lacking in both height and weight over power him at the line of scrimmage. The worst part about it all is his body language and faking injuries.
On numerous occasions he would get over powered by a smaller corner and go to grab his shoulder long after his failed blocking attempt as if to say it wasn’t his lack of skill or drive to make the key block, rather his shoulder that prohibited him from making the block. With such a horrible blocker on the field at a position as detrimental to Seattle’s success as the TE position, Seattle will be forced to bring in a second TE strictly for run blocking purposes.
This means a more skilled offensive weapon like a wide receiver will be taken off the field and replaced with a subpar offensive weapon whose job is strictly to block. This means safeties will no longer need to worry that their double coverage of Graham could mean a completion over the top. This means on nearly every play the defense can focus on Graham in coverage. Most of Graham’s success was a result of the high-powered offensive abilities of the New Orleans Saints and the speed and skill at wide receiver surrounding Graham.
With this all being said, a worse QB and passing offense surrounding him, a team identity that does not help Graham succeed, and the fact that he doesn’t have the ability, nor the drive to block, I have Graham having an underwhelming season. While still a top TE in the league, the majority of his points will come from red zone targets.
*Projected stats: 73-receptions 810-yards 7-touchdowns (lowest stats since his rookie year)
2) Andre Johnson will have 10+ touchdowns:
Andre Johnson has always been one of the most underrated pro players in the game. Never having a quality quarterback to throw him the ball, an underwhelming underachieving offense surrounding him, and until last year no real number two receiving option around him, he still managed to be a top receiver at the pro level. A fantasy owners delight, his undervalued name always meant you could steal him in your draft.
The only constant problems with Andre Johnson is his past were his health and his teammates. Averaging over 80 receptions a season during his long pro career, Andre Johnson has been the definition of consistent. Last year was his worst statistical season in his career; however, he still racked up an astonishing 85 receptions for 936 yards and 3 touchdowns. His career high in touchdowns is 9. This year he will surpass that and below are reasons why.
1) Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck:
Take away the fact that Andrew Luck is the leagues best young QB, he is in the elite 5 top quarterbacks in the league. Many believe he may be the second best quarterback only behind Aaron Rodgers (for now). He led the league with 40 touchdown passes last year and did it with a much worse offense.
If he can give an older, and injured (rehabilitated knee, torn triceps) Reggie Wayne 64-receptions 779-yards and 3-touchdowns, imagine what Luck could give a healthy and locked in Andre Johnson. With only a few days of training camp in the books, Luck has already targeted Johnson more than double the amount any other receiver has gotten. Luck is going to love the big bulky Andre Johnson. Johnson is a nice change-up to his speedy smaller receiving corps consisting of TY Hilton and rookie Phillip Dorsett.
2) Andre Johnson has a new found drive and focus never seen before:
A Super Bowl ring or bust. That’s how Andre Johnson feels about the Colts this season and the remainder of his career. He left the team that drafted him, the face of a franchise, to go to his division rival to win now. Nothing more, nothing less than the dance is the expectation. Towards the end of his career with the Texans, many believed he had lost his drive for the game, approaching Sunday’s without any focus or care, as he knew he would be at open watching the playoffs from his sofa. He now not only can taste a divisional championship, but the playoffs as well. He still has some gas left in the tank and he’s using it with a team he wants to play for.
3) Johnson has legitimate weapons around him:
He no longer is the only guy on the field that can play! With multiple weapons that could break out for over 1000 yards and a productive running back this will mean Johnson could flourish. With the pure speed of this team doubling team Johnson just won’t be possible, so expect a lot of targets/receptions.
*prediction: 94 receptions 1135 yards 12 touchdowns
3) Odell Beckham Jr will not be a top 5 fantasy WR:
This one is pretty simple, no need for an over abundance of statistics and analytics to prove this one. He just flat out doesn’t pass the eye test. Call me crazy, discard and discredit everything you have read to this point, I don’t care. ODB Jr just isn’t a top 5 receiver. Sure he has amazing hands that help him fill up his game film with high light catches. Sure he has lateral quickness and can jump his way into outer space. Sure he is a top 10 receiver in terms of skill and athleticism. He has a few glaring problems though that I can’t seem to overlook.
1) I don’t believe he will remain healthy. A hamstring injury caused him to miss the preseason and first 4 games of his rookie season. To have the statistics that he had with missing 4 games is insane! I just personally foresee injuries having the same effect on ODB Jr as injuries did to Victor Cruz in recent years.
2) His ego is growing so fast there isn’t a helmet big enough to safely protect his head. After arguably one of the greatest catches in NFL history the legend of Odell Beckham Jr grew. With arguably the greatest NFL season a rookie wide out has had, his legend continues to grow to this day. Madden has ranked him ahead of great receivers like Calvin “Megatron” Johnson. Listening to interviews with ODB, you can see his ego is growing way to fast. This could cause issues on and off the field with teammates.
3) HE IS ONLY IN HIS SECOND SEASON!!! Hold off on handing him the “best receiver” in the league card until we see what a second season in the NFL looks like. At one point after his rookie year, many were willing to give RG3 the nod over Andrew Luck as best young QB, and some even went as far as to say he was one of the best QBs in the league. Year two stifled that. Give professional players and coaches one offseason of focusing on how to stop ODB and we will see what his stats look like. I don’t believe ODB will have an average season by any stretch of the imagination (he will still have a top 10-15 fantasy receiver season if he remains healthy). I don’t see him having a top 2-5 fantasy season like many experts believe. Eli Manning is much better than people are giving him credit for right now and with a healthy Victor Cruz back on the field, ODB will still have plenty of targets. Just don’t be disappointed when he doesn’t have a top-5 season.
*projected stats: 92-receptions 1148-yards 7-touchdowns
4) Terrell Pryor, WR for the Cleveland Browns, is worth a draft pick.
Pryor recently changed positions from QB to WR. This is hard enough to do in high school, let alone college, LET ALONE THE NFL! When playing for the Oakland Raiders, Pryor was an electric read option QB, once even rushing for a 93-yard touchdown run (longest by an QB in NFL history). Below are reasons why I believe Pryor may be worth using a draft pick on:
1) Size and speed! 4.38 40 time, 93-yard touchdown run which again is the longest by a QB in history. His 6’5 240 lbs frame. Not only would he be one of the largest receivers in the NFL but also one of the fastest.
2) This former Oakland Raider knows how a QB sees and thinks. He played QB in the NFL and was honestly not too bad at it. He had won big games in college and has even played very well in the NFL. Take a look at his start against the San Diego Chargers when he had a QB rating over 135 and out performed Phillip Rivers. That being said, he knows what a QB wants and needs to see to throw the ball. Also the ability to come in and play QB if any injuries occur and have the potential to pull an Antwaan Randle El in Super Bowl XL and throw a deep ball on a reverse-option-pass. Take into account that he is only 26, his ceiling is very high and nowhere near to being touched.
Expect Pryor to, at minimum, be a viable plug-in-play receiver for your team on bye weeks, let alone the ability to potentially be an every week player.
*projected stats: 62-receptions, 784-yards, 4-touchdowns/ 14- rushes, 94-yards 1-touchdown/ 5-completions, 56-yards, 1-touchdown/ add potential special team plays such as returns to statistics as well.
The final part of this article is what I am really looking forward to doing this upcoming season in my articles. It’s what I call “the fans speed round”. Quick summary of what it is, fans have asked me questions, I have selected a few of these “buy or sell” questions and will simply answer with a “buy or sell” remark. No need for stats and or analytics to help reassure my fan base (or my hated critics lol) that I am correct or wrong. Just a simple fast answer to simple fast questions. This week will feature the AFC SOUTH.
1) Colby Fleener will be a top-8 fantasy TE- BUY IT
2) Phillip Dorsett will be a top-5 rookie fantasy WR- BUY IT
3) Andrew Luck will break NFL records that include: passing yardage and touchdown passes- BUY IT
4) 3+ Colts receivers and or TEs will have over 900-yards receiving and over 9-touchdowns- BUY IT
5) Frank Gore will rush for 1200-yards- SELL IT
6) Marcus Mariota will be a top-10 fantasy QB- SELL IT
7) Julius Thomas will continue his streak as one of the top fantasy TEs in football- SELL IT
8) When healthy, Arian Foster will produce as a top-5 fantasy RB- BUY AND SELL IT
9) Blake Bortles will throw for 3200+ yards and 28+ touchdowns- SELL IT
10) Houston’s defense will still be one of the top defenses to draft- BUY IT
David Harris is a sports writer for CouchRiderReport.net