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Rookie WR Historical Fantasy Impact

P.J. Conley

Rookie WR historical Fantasy Impact

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Every year we’re told that we should stay away from rookie Wide Receivers. There are always big names we want on our squad; guys that we watched dominate in college. Players who draft analysts compare to our favorite all time players. Months of NFL Draft hype could make a speedster from Clemson look like the second coming of Calvin Johnson. To bust this theory we must look at the past and see how the former top prospects of the past 5 years fared in their inaugural seasons.

2013:

Rd 1, Pick 8) Tavon Austin, St Louis Rams

Rd 1, Pick 21) DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Rd 1, Pick 29) Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings

Rd 2, Pick 2) Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans

Rd 2, Pick 9) Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills

Rd 2, Pick 27) Aaron Dobson, New England Patriots

Rd 3, Pick 10) Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys

Rd 3, Pick 12) Kennan Allen, San Diego Chargers

2012:

Rd 1, Pick 5) Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Rd 1, Pick 13) Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

 

Rd 1, Pick 20) Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

Rd 2, Pick 1) Brian Quick, St Louis Rams

 

Rd 2, Pick 11) Stephen Hill, New York Jets

 

Rd 2, Pick 13) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

 

 

Rd 2, Pick 22) Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions

Rd 2, Pick 31) Reuben Randle, New York Giants

 

2011:

Rd 1, Pick 4) AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals

 

Rd 1, Pick 6) Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

 

Rd 1, Pick 26) Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs

 

Rd 2, Pick 12) Titus Young, Detroit Lions

 

 

Rd 2, Pick 26) Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens

 

Rd 2, Pick 27) Greg Little, Cleveland Browns

 

Rd 2, Pick 32) Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

 

2010:

Rd 1, Pick 22) Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

 

Rd 1, Pick 24) Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Rd 2, Pick 7) Arrelious Benn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rd 2, Pick 28) Golden Tate, Seattle Seahawks

2009:

Rd 1, Pick 7) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders

Rd 1, Pick 10) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

 

Rd 1, Pick 19) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

 

Rd 1, Pick 22) Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings

 

Rd 1, Pick 29) Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants

 

Rd 1, Pick 30) Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans

Conclusion: In the past 5 years, Keenan Allen had the most points of any rookie WR with 223. Other good first year performers include TY Hilton, Mike Williams, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Torrey Smith, Terrence Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Tavon Austin. If you reevaluate the point breakdowns, you will see that the players named had many single-digit games but also had a few double digit games. Bottom line, rookie WR’s are the definition of Boom or Bust. 30 points one week could mean 3 points the following 4 weeks.

Just in case you were wondering, the 3  best rookie receiving performances in the past 20 years are: Randy Moss: 301 pts/ Anquan Boldin: 286 points/ Terry Glenn: 284 yards

P.J. Conley is a Writer for Couch Rider Report. Follow us on Facebook or twitter.

 

 

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